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Tactical Analysis: What’s Going On in Day 3 Ukraine-Russian War

This is a tactical report and analysis of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022, not a political commentary on the war. On the start of day 3, what we have seen is rather interesting from a military tactics standpoint as Russia launched what they state to be a limited war to demilitarize Ukraine. The Russian invasion has had three major thrusts: from Crimea, Belarus, and the northeast. The separatist controlled regions of Ukraine have not been a major front of this war so far.

Attacking from Crimea, the Russians saw initial success. the Russians and Ukrainians had intense clashes over bridges crossing the Dnieper River. Last reports are that the Russians have seized at least one major river crossing. Additionally, the Russians are said to have control of half the city of Melitopol which is en route to the separatist controlled regions. The gains from day one were not matched on day two and have not been so far on day three.

Attacking from Belarus appears to have had the most success for Russia. Early on the Russians captured Chernobyl using airborne units. Additionally, the Russians launched a daring assault on the Hostomel airport which is west of Kiev. Currently, the Russians hold this airport which has strategic importance as Russian troops enter Kiev from the northwest. It would also seem that Russians troops from Belarus, but on the eastern bank of the Dnieper, have made it to the northeastern outskirts of Kiev.

From the northeast, less is known. This is tank country. What is known is that the Russians have penetrated Ukrainian defenses, but to what extent is the question.

Russia also appears to be probing the defenses of Odessa.

The Ukrainians are certainly not underperforming like the Afghanistan government which received billions in US aid. However, it does not appear that Russia has gone all-in on the invasion. They are likely holding back to see which weaknesses can be further exploited or awaiting international response before committing more units.

All sources stem from real time primary source aggregator, LiveUAMap.

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