Mark Driscoll has an appeal with younger Americans as well as blue collar men. So while people do not flock to Driscoll for theology, they do appreciate his practical wisdom and willingness to call out evil in the culture. So, it’s surprising to see that Driscoll has come out in favor of 50 year mortgages.
In a video titled, TRUMP 50-Year Mortgage is a GREAT Idea! Driscoll and team argue that the introduction of the 50 year mortgage, it is argued that is a good policy, especially for young homebuyers.
While it is rightly pointed out that first time homebuyers are afforded many opportunities by the government, the fifty year mortgage is treated as a solution to the housing market, particiularly in Arizona where they decry corporations buying up homes.
Unaddressed in the video is that the housing crisis is predominantly driven by immigration, legal and illegal, with 100 million immigrants in the United States competing with natives for housing. Reducing this population would instantly alleviate the housing market. But instead, they view the 50 year mortgage as the solution.
The 50 year mortgage could be smart for an investor who needs a wider window of margin on a property he plans to rent out during a turbulent time. But for a primary residence, it’s dumb and the numbers do not justify it.
Going over the numbers, Team Driscoll agrees that the savings would be around $200 per month, although they have not factored in PMI. Despite this, they insist that 50 year mortgages are better than renting.
Their main argument is that endless inflation means endless appreciation. But this is not a guarantee. The price is what people are willing to pay for it. The value is what people get. Despite endless money printing, the price of gas has not kept up with inflation. Similarly, elastic goods do not sell as well when their price goes up. People assumed that tariffs would drive prices up, but this is largely an unrealized fear, as consumer expectations of what goods cost have dictated that the tariffs are not passed onto them to the same extent.
The same is true of the housing market, where higher interest rates have made it more difficult for corporations to buy homes, and in many parts of the country, we are seeing housing prices drop. Team Driscoll’s expectation that the housing market will not (ever) crash does not take into account immigration policy, declining birthrates, and a generational transfer of wealth that is inevitable.
Mark Driscoll teaches that men should get married, buy a house, and have kids, but he is promoting a shortcut to buying a house that is costly in the long term, risky in the near term, and has nominal, if any, benefits.
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One option I’m not seeing discussed lately is “rent to own.” Typically, someone wanting to sell a home, but unable to do so at an agreeable price immediately, lets someone rent the home in the interim. Two benefits of this to a renter who wants to own that home are 1) they are already there without needing another move, and 2) they will soon know the exact value of that home, warts and all, making it easier to all agree on a selling price.
My wife and I did that once: renting a home we wanted, but couldn’t afford until a previous home sold, and ended up buying at a much lower than originally asked price, due to things we discovered about the home by living there.