2024 General Election Prediction

I’m giving my hot take for the 2024 Election and here goes. I do believe that Donald Trump will emerge victorious and that we will know this on election night. The latter part of the prediction has more heat than my rather unoriginal electoral college map.

So at 312-226, I believe that Donald Trump will win his original coalition of states and add Nevada to the fold. Nevada is a burgeoning state, that has been trending Republican. I think 2024 is finally the year it happens.

The early voting numbers for Republicans is the reason for my optimism. Anecdotally, early voting is now in style, and Republicans have been taking full advantage of it. I have not, for what it’s worth, but I live two minutes from my polling location. The Democrats are not going to turn out for a diversity hire candidate. The normies who don’t like DEI in Star Wars are similarly not going to vote it into the White House. Additionally, I do not believe Black Americans will turn out for Kamala. This does not mean that they will flip to Trump, but the size of the electorate will be smaller. This will have a devastating impact in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Republicans tend to win where they devote their money to. In this case, Pennsylvania is the most important state, and Donald Trump has campaigned extremely well there, using quality celebrity endorsements like Elon Musk, Antonio Brown, and Le’Veon Bell to his advantage. I don’t see Trump winning PA and still losing.

There is a vibe that Trump will win the election. Betting markets know this. SNL has viscously mocked Kamala Harris, so they know this. Perhaps Americans have suffered enough and want to take their country back. Deus Vult.