Ever since Joe Biden has been widely recognized as the loser of the first and perhaps only presidential debate, speculation has intensified over whether he will appear on the ballot much longer. The Democrat Party is split on the issue and a broader faceoff on the issue seems like it will be on the record prior to the Democratic National Convention. But despite appearances, the Democrat Party is in a lose-lose situation with Joe Biden where leaving him on the ballot is their superior option at this point for a few reasons.
The first reason is time. Running a presidential campaign is not easy, and trying to do so on short notices risks a repeat of Walter Mondale. Time is running out to change who will appear on the ballot as the voting will begin well before election day, a situation oft exploited by Democrats.
The second reason is related and that is name ID. Simply put, Joe Biden is known. Even Kamala Harris is not as widely known as Biden. Biden pivoted to an ironic message about honesty to excuse his debate performance, and that’s the best play Democrats have. There is no guarantee a lesser-known candidate will draw the same numbers Joe Biden can as the heir apparent to Obama.
Thirdly, replacing Biden will hand Trump a massive victory. Winning begets winning and losing begets losing. If Biden is pulled from the game, this will, or should, embolden Trump to claim victory for defeating Biden. This is political humiliation for the Democrats to change horses midrace. The aura of victory that would be handed to Trump following a humiliating substitution will undermine the ability of a replacement to win.
Joe Biden’s substitution would lastly invite questions of accountability. Democrats would be best served by gaslighting Americans lauding Biden’s debate performance or memory holing it. To remove Biden invites suspicion of who was actually running the country because the Democrats would be admitting to Biden’s incapability. They would have to answer questions as to how long they have known of Biden’s ineptitude as they will need to deny Trump the trophy. Creating the counternarrative to Biden’s demise is an uphill battle, and the Democrats have a greater chance of using their media apparatus to lie to the entire nation than to deny Trump the victory and avoid scrutiny in replacing Joe Biden.
One last bonus reason: Democrats do not care about winning merely the next election. They play a much longer game, one with generational planning. When Trump won in 2016, they were ready to go with false narratives to delay or supplant his presidency. They’ll simply run the same playbook because they are shameless and have an Administrative State on their side.
